tv Fast Money Halftime Report CNBC January 31, 2014 12:00pm-1:01pm EST
>> as cramer pointed out this morning, if you're a diehard bear, a lot of the names, the transports, for example, are not letting you in. that's one of the things he said. i wish they would come in so you could start to nibble but that's not happening. it's a good dynamic for the bulls. scott wapner will have more on this in the next hour. >> nice move off the lows for sure. but no denying the fact if people are fleeing equity funds, whether it's here in the united states or in emerging markets and if you're bullish the market, carl, you better hope that this as goes january so goes the rest of the year thing doesn't hold because we're looking at a negative january for the first time in a few years. >> yeah. our question to cashin is, all this pay back for last year or is this the january indicator we all know and love? we'll see. >> we will. carl, you guys have a great weekend. i know you want the broncos to win. good luck there. we'll see what happens in the super bowl. welcome to the "halftime show" on this friday. following the biggest stories on the street today. bing on the board.
amazon board mem ben gordon on why the stock is getting hammered today and where the business goes from here. yum or yuck? we serve up a debate on what yum brands will deliver what you should do with that stock. bear market with japan's nikkei 20% off the highs is one of 13's winningest trades suddenly a loser. let's meet today's starting lineup. sarah eisen on the $9 billion being pulled from emerging market funds and what it means. jon najarian on the return of volatility in a big way. josh lipton on google's hit. mike murphy on walmart, mastercard and consumer. simon baker and what he thinks is a buy today. ben willis, now getting the markets on the floor of the new york stock exchange. steve liesman right here next to us on whether central banks around the globe are simply out of bullets. we do begin with investors heading for the exits. equity funds have seen the biggest weekly out flows in more than two years. bonds meantime continuing to
move higher than ten-year yield dropping to its lowest level since october. sire a eisen, we begin with you in this tremendous move out of emerging market equities. i know you're watching currencies but that's not to be ignored. >> yanking their money out of emerging markets period. the fun flow data had the most out flows last week since back in 2011 for emerging markets. talking about $6 billion out of emerging markets debt as well. and you've seen the reaction in these kurnsz sis. it's been sharp. it's been multiyear lows for a lot of currencies. they're being grouped together around they're so not many favor right now. whether they're for individual reasons, specific policies and problems, it's all being forecast to the front lines right now because the federal reserve is cutting back on some of its stimulus baz there are questions about china and, as a result, you continue to see these sell-offs another one overnight in emerging markets. >> could go a number of ways.
steve, we'll talk about central banks in a minute but, doc, let's not ignore the fact that the stock market has moved well off the lows. down by less than 100 points. >> yeah. >> not to, you know, short change what's happening on the street today. it's decidedly down day. volatility is back and back in a big way. >> it was back too much. it basically got back to the highs we hit tuesday this week when we hit nearly 19. exactly the same number. 1899 this morning. and you look out at that curve, the backwardatin, if it were a commodity like crude oil you would take the crude oil out of storage and bring it out of the spot. that's what i think, sarah, they're trying to do by what they've done with emerging markets currencies like the turkish lira because by move that rate by 7 1/2 to 12 1/2 they basically crushed the folks who were on the other side of that trade and they're trying to make it happen very fast, judge. south africa is not playing ball but some other countries are and that's why we're moving quickly.
>> what stops this emerging market bleeding? are central banks running out of bullets they need to stem this off? >> i think they have scope in two realms to act. i think the first one is that they can act with their rates as they've done this week. there is some sense that capital controls are a possibility if things get really bad. i think also they have the ability to come forward and say we're working on the structural problems that create the weakness and concern. in the united states i think it's very simple. better economic numbers and better earnings numbers are the things that i think stock. i think with even a little bit of positive nature to them they're going to overwhelm this emerging market story in a na nanoseco nanosecond. >> ben willis, how do you see it? steve makes an interesting point. what's the mood there on the floor in relation to what steve is talking about? >> mood is pretty good considering all volatility, traders love volatilitvolatilit.
the correction thavs going to happen at every professional trader is looking for you saw a big call in on the vix earlier in the month. it's all driven by central banks, whether it's the vomc leading the charge with its taper, actually meaning that when you taper you are going to tighten whether you like it or not. and then the rest of the central banks trying to remanufacturer their existence in the world market. we've seen money flows coming out of all across the board, particularly from the emerging markets and you try and have a discussion and explain to people why the lira is reason an affect, you get glassy eyed looks, what is the relationship? whether you understand it or not the fact of the matter is that is what's impacting the correction that we're finally in, thank god. it's necessary. it will benefit the long-term health of this market. so we'll take it while we can get it. and, you know, we bounced off our lows with europe closing. we'll see if that's how we go out on the close. last day of the month, you can get a little bit more
interesting going into the loose ten minutes. >> simon baker, people are buying something. now the market has the losses. what would you buy? >> it's interesting. i'm going to take pragmatic here and the railroads are up 52-week high. fundamentally if you think the economies and the gdp growth is intact, looking strong. >> i think your microphone is off. maybe you should fix that. >> josh lipton. we're looking at what google is doing, what amazon is doing as well. we're calling it google's hit, palm zo amazon's miss as we look at the story means today. >> two very different stories there, scott. google obviously, you know, clicks up 31%. better than the street expected. the volume is there. at the same time, cpc is down 11%. . that was worse than expected. that's that transition from pcs to mobile. banking that google executives will figure that out the same way that facebook executives
did. with amazon you saw that top line miss. amazon obviously not immune from the fewer shopping days. softer, final quarter here in the states. north american revenue did pop something 24% year over year. and also making big news on prime. you know, pacific crest estimates they added 6.5 million members in 2013. that was way up from 2012. they spend four times more than nonmembers. maybe more opportunity for amazon. >> murph? >> what would you be doing if the market today? if you could take walmart's lowering their guidance, right? as a real negative sign. is it -- should it be taken that way? >> i don't think so. walmart, you have to throw mastercard in there as well. i don't think so. look at what walmart told us. theyed to us they were blaming it on the weather like everyone else, i guess. blaming it on fewer food stamps out there. judge, i'll argue that walmart hasn't been that important in a long time. yes, they're the biggest retailer but from a stock, from
an equity standpoint the stock hasn't been a leader. if you look at the price action today, stock opens weak. churning higher on the day. i don't think you can put too much emphasis on these one or two reports and say the consumer is t not out there, right? i think there's enough to count to take the other side of that argument. >> ben willis, thanks to you. sarah and steve, stick around for our next conversation. even with all the cash streaming out of emerging market funds our next guest suggests going the other way, richard manages $50 billion as cio of jpmorgan's market group. he's live today from london. it's great to have you on. what's the best play and why today as there seems to be an awful lot of money moving out of the ems. >> well, in general, if you think about how you make money in emerging markets, it's nor l normally by moving against the crowd and you're right, everyone is very nervous. people are scared.
that creates opportunity. and generally, your risk with emerging markets is you buy them when they're expensive and they're clearly not expensive right now. >> sarah eisen, you say scared for a reason, right? >> yeah. i just want to point out the fragile fly. it's hard to talk about all emerging markets as one group. morgan stanley coined this term fra zil five, brazil, india, turkey, south africa. they're under serious pressure and so are their currencies. they all have different policies but they all do have current account deficits which puts them in a weaker position and they have political uncertainty and a lot of them are facing elections as well. >> sarah, current account deficit is not a problem if the concern and maybery charred wants to weigh in, the concern is that they can't pay their external debt. i have not heard that yet. and that has not been an issue and i maintain this has become a real issue when there are real mac
macro economic problems. >> rather than just run for the exit which is its own dynamic. >> when is the bleeding stop here? >> you're right. no one worries about current account deficits in a bull market. and, pete, that's only a concern when investors are nervous and that was the story last year. you had a bull market in the u.s. but in the end, it was a bear market. and that focuses people's attention on who is weak. and i think that will continue. >> so of all of the emerging markets that are on the front paige and the up withes that are getting hit the most in their currencies are most in focus, where would you go in and do some buying? >> well, i think if you look at those fragile five, clearly the one that is furthest through this process is india. india had terrific currency volatility last year. they've had to raise rates. but their current account deficit is shrinking. i think that they're six to nine months ahead of the rest of their fragile brothers. >> richard, it's great to have
you on this show. interesting times and certainly these developments are going to be the talk for the next several days. appreciate it very much. sarah, have a good weekend. steve, as always. shares of amazon down today after issuing disappointing guidance despite posting a product. after the break we're going to talk to ben gordon who sits on the board of amazon and he's going to tell us what the next big thing in tech is going to be. and it's super bowl weekend. we're talking to former nfl great keyshawn johnson. knows a thing or two about winning in new jersey. it's been a roller coaster week for investors with just a few hours left to trade this month. here is where the major averages stand right now.
ok, here's the way the system works. let's say you pay your guy around 2 percent to manage your money. that's not much, you think except it's 2 percent every year. does that make a difference? search "cost of financial advisors" ouch! over time it really adds up. then go to e*trade and find out how much our advice costs. spoiler alert. it's low. really? yes, really. e*trade offers investment advice and guidance from dedicated professional financial consultants. it's guidance on your terms not ours that's how our system works. e*trade. less for us, more for you.
welcome back. time for trader blitz. three trades on three stocks. walmart, warning fourth quarter earnings to be slightly below the low end of the prior guide da dance. closings in brazil, china, and india are impacting earnings. murph? >> absolutely. i would rather focus on the price action on the stock today. >> i was going to ask you, why is the stock up? >> came down. 7364 is where it opened. we knew this was going on. as i mentioned earlier, we know that walmart has been having some problems. so maybe to get this guide lower out of the way now, traders are looking to position themselves long term. >> doc, mastercard can be lumped to the to figure out what's going on with the consumer. >> well, they do have a lot of
emerging market exposure, too, judge. what's going on with mastercard and the fact that it's down today fairly hard, i few that as an opportunity. i didn't buy it today but i did sell some puts. that's a way of forcing myself to buy it at lower prices. if indeed the stock moves there i will be happy to buy it at those prices. i think this one's a buy here. >> what a move, simon, with chipotle. this one came out of nowhere. you know the restaurants are being a terrible sector and blew awe way same-store sales by 9.3% citing initiatives, culture. but we really like this name going forward. different name, restaurant, stocks. organic identity. continues to differentiate itself. moving along to scott here. >> let's go back to one of the biggest movers of the day. that, of course, amazon. ben gordon is the general partner. venture capital firm that was an early investors in several tech giants including google, facebook, as well as amazon where he sits on the board of
directors and that's where we'll start. ben, welcome. great to have you on the show. >> great to be here. >> so what do you think of the way that the street is taking amazon's earnings? >> you know, it's hard for me to comment too much as a board member, you know. i agree with jeff's point of view. he's willing to be misunderstood for a long period of time, takes the long view. and, you know, i think it's a fabulous management team and management team with tail winds tend to percent severe and win e long run. >> do you think the strategy is being questioned for maybe one of the first times by the street that, you know, maybe the spending habits of amazon are finally starting to catch up to the company for quarter after
quarter after quarter, people have been willing to give this company a pass based on the -- pass based on what's down the road. >> i'm a full-on believer in amazon the management team and strategy. so, you know, i have no questions and no doubts. >> okay. you think amazon is as forth -- >> i'm not going to comment on the opinions of others. >> okay. should amazon be more forthcoming in the way that it talks to investors? we don't know that much about the company. should that change? >> no. >> okay. that's interesting. okay. could we talk about zinga? >> certainly. >> okay. third major headcount reduction in a couple of years. biggest acquisition yet. why is that the right move at the right time? >> well, the -- i'm a fan of natural motion.
i'm a huge fan of don mattrix. spectacular, proven executive. he produced me to card games way back when, when he invented "need for speed." so that's one of my favorite categories. i'm a huge fan of csr racing by natural motion. so that couldn't be a more exciting acquisition to me. reduction in force. anybody who has been in business for a while knows that it's -- it's kind of a natural course of business life, a little like for people like me, diets are, of course, daily life. >> what's the next big trend that we should be keeping our eyes on for technology? everybody is talking about wearables. is it something else or is that where the game is going to be played? >> well, you know, i would say
that mobile phone are wearables. we are carrying mainframe computers in our pockets now. one of the things we want when we create any kind of application is we want user constant engagement. there's never been a technology that's had the engagement of mobile phones. 150 times a day. the next ten years there's going to be 5 billion people engaging with their mobile phone 150 times a day. wearables do is they allow you to engage without strog reach into your pocket. so something like the jaw band up which is wireless, it's basically pushing information to my phone much more easily. so i'm a fan of increasing engagement with convenience. so, yeah, i predict in ten years 10% of people connected to the web are wearing some kind of
visual wearable. we started a class fund to support the early work by google. i think these things that measure the quantified self are addicting, fun, useful, and social. you know, being able to to -- you probably know. you probably have parents who talk about their health all the time. something like the jawbone upband makes talking about your health through an app pretty cool even for young people. >> yeah, no, i got a trader sitting next to me wearing one of those. let me ask you -- >> he or she must do a lot of steps per day. >> i think he probably does. >> 13,000. >> 14,000, he said. >> whoa. >> let me ask you -- >> that's going to be top 5%. >> let me ask you before we go. i'm well aware that tom perkins is no longer at the firm. his name is still on the door. he stepped in some pretty good
controversy this week with his comments about inequality. i'm just wondering what the mood inside the firm is this week as a result of perkins' comments and your opinions of that? >> i've been at cliner 5 1/2 years. i've never lied eyes laid eyes him. so i think the people in the firm who used to work him, you know, they remember him fondly. and, you know, the firm summarized that all of its comments in a single tweet. >> that's all you're willing to say on that matter? >> well, you know, i've never laid eyes on the guy, so it's hard for me -- >> yeah. >> hard for me to have much emotion about it. i notice that, you know, some of my friends who know him and think of him fondly, they have different emotions than me. >> right. all right. i appreciate you at least
entertaining the question. we'll talk to you again soon. >> thanks. have a good one. let's trade amazon first and foremost. >> i need that price increase for the prime, quite frankly, scott, because even with record sign-ups for prime they had struggled obviously with this last quarter. i need to have them push that price increase through. if they do, then i'm an aggressive buyer. >> i wonder, i wouldn't buy the stock here on this pullback because if for the first time amazon gets valued based on a normal valuation, trading 150, 250 times earnings currently, if you're going to start valuing this company like other companies out there i don't think you can jump in there even here in the mid 300s and buy it. any major sell-off on amazon has been a great buying opportunity in the past. >> why if they raise prime prices like they're talking about doing? >> some people look at that as a negative. i think that's a huge positive. i think that's just money in the bank for them. and i think that's a great
thing. >> what about zinga? >> i looked at zinga and groupon last year and i looked at groupon. it's going to hurt me in the competition. i wish i went with zynga. >> coming up on the half, netflix holding up today. analyst upgrade has shares trading water today but is the analyst too late to the party? is it time to run for the border? yum brands off to a tough start this year with shares down more than 10% but can earnings spark a much needed rally? food fight on tap. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 trading inspires your life.
tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 life inspires your trading. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 where others see fads... tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 ...you see opportunities. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 at schwab, we're here to help tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 turn inspiration into action. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 we have intuitive platforms tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 to help you discover what's trending. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and seasoned market experts to help sharpen your instincts. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 so you can take charge tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 of your trading. afghanistan, in 2009.
orbiting the moon in 1971. [ male announcer ] once it's earned, usaa auto insurance is often handed down from generation to generation. because it offers a superior level of protection. and because usaa's commitment to serve current and former military members and their families is without equal. begin your legacy. get an auto insurance quote. usaa. we know what it means to serve. but with less energy, moodiness, and a low sex drive, i had to do something. i saw my doctor. a blood test showed it was low testosterone, not age. we talked about axiron the only underarm low t treatment that can restore t levels to normal in about two weeks in most men. axiron is not for use in women or anyone younger than 18 or men with prostate or breast cancer. women, especially those who are or who may become pregnant, and children should avoid contact where axiron is applied as unexpected signs of puberty in children or changes in body hair or increased acne in women may occur. report these symptoms to your doctor.
tell your doctor about all medical conditions and medications. serious side effects could include increased risk of prostate cancer, worsening prostate symptoms, decreased sperm count, ankle, feet or body swelling, enlarged or painful breasts, problems breathing while sleeping and blood clots in the legs. common side effects include skin redness or irritation where applied, increased red blood cell count, headache, diarrhea, vomiting, and increase in psa. ask your doctor about axiron. the battle for trader of the year continues. let's look at the leaderboard for the play book playoffs. so far pete is in the lead followed by, well, mike murphy is in the lead. check that. >> look at that!
murph just jumped. i think he's -- must have been a quick jump if it changed that quick. >> that's where it would be. >> murph is in the lead and adding to his gains. pete is in a distant second. simon and doc -- >> catching up. >> catching up. >> best of luck to you. >> thanks. you know, the wearable technology, i'm excited about hymax coming up. cramer like that one. i think that's going to take you guys. >> murph -- >> i've got intel and they announced wearable at the ces. >> intel is not going to move. >> can we talk about what murphy is making him a winner on? facebook. what a week. >> facebook has had a phenomenal week. as i said, during the playbook playoffs i said i think the stock carried 75. to be perfectly honest i was being conservative. i think the stock has more upside. if you look at what they said on the quarter, if you look at the ad dollars coming in, we don't know how high that can get or what percentage of the market
they can get. so i think you stay with facebook, ride facebook. i think 75 is higher than that. >> track all the moves the traders make and perform maps by going to cnbc.com/2014/playbook. also tweet us using the #playbookplayoffs. netflix is fighting red tape after morgan stanley admitted it was long by slapping a sell rating on the stock. th capitulating a bit today. over the last week or so he's not the first analyst on a specific stock to say, you know what, maybe we were wrong, change course. >> kudos to him for that because when any of us get it wrong and i get it wrong frequently, to have him turn around and then take off that rating, i think kudos to him or her, whichever analyst we happen to be talking about that day that makes that move.
that takes some guts. >> we think netflix would make a period before international users could offset the slowdown. we were wrong. >> my concern on netflix, it seems to me that everybody is getting on one side of the ship here. the stock, they put up great numbers. the stock is over $400 a share now. >> michael is going to be offended. >> there is some out there that are still bearish and if you've been bearish you've been dead wrong. but you know, with everybody getting on one side of the boat with the stock up at all-time highs makes me concerned. i have no position but i definitely would not be initiating the position north of 400. >> it's been hitting all time highs over the last 12 months. you've got to get on board at some stage. >> it's interesting how many people will tell me, the other people, comcast and time warner cable and anybody else needs to just get out there and compete against these guys and burn the 200 million a month or a quarter that they need to to catch them. and i don't see a lot of ceos willing to take that kind of heat. we'll see. >> let's go to seema taking a look at this month's winners and
losers. >> scott, let's start with the winners. they've been able to gain what has been a terrible take. the first one is harman international. best performing stocks on the s&p 500. it reported a big jump in sales and earnings, thanks to a boom in auto business. and now m&a has also been a driver first on stocks and beam is a great example. shares soaring after some holdings announced its plan to acquire the whiskey brand. stock up 22% this month. thens will tesla, one of the best performing stocks that has done well this year. up 22% as more analysts turn bullish on the electric carmaker. great picks on twitter showing the top road for tesla drivers trying to set the guinness world record for their trip from l.a. to new york. your can see it here. on the losing side. best buy went from being the best performing stocks in 2013 to one of the worst performing stocks this year. it's down about 43%.
there the big catalyst there being disappointing earnings and sluggish holiday sales. different story for cliffs. one of the worst performing stocks last year and it continues to move lower in 2014 on worries over little demand. lastly, gamestop witnessing the biggest drop in 11 years after it lowered earnings forecast. the stock down 28% this year. scott? >> all right. seema mody, thank you. simon baker, you are buying best buy? >> yeah. we like the story. if you look at it you get the sellers exhaustion in there. the same store comps bottomed out so it's got a good catalyst going forward. sbertd sales continue to go forward. it's a good longer term rate. think gap 2010. >> murphy is shaking his head as you're speaking. >> he's always shaking his head. he's not long netflix. >> i don't own netflix but i definitely wouldn't be buying best buy. we talked about best buy at $40 a share. you try to understand why best buy went from going out of business in the end of 2012 to being the best performer at the
end of 2013 and then you see the stock performance now. there was no reason for it. it was over priced. people got ahead of themselves in the stock. down here around 23, 24, maybe 25 is a fair value. but there's nothing out there that's going to push best buy up over $30 a share. >> coming up, should you be a buyer of yum ahead of earnings or will chine that burn the longs? we have a bull and bear squaring off. you're going to we de side the winner. with markets across the globe selling off, where is the best home for your money right now? we're asking the head of research at bank of america. candace browning whose firm was given top honors, after this. you make a great team. it's been that way since the day you met. but your erectile dysfunction - it could be a question of blood flow. cialis tadalafil for daily use helps you be ready anytime the moment's right. you can be more confident in your ability to be ready. and the same cialis is the only daily ed tablet approved to treat ed and symptoms of bph like needing to go frequently or urgently. tell your doctor about all your medical conditions and medications,
and ask if your heart is healthy enough for sexual activity. do not take cialis if you take nitrates for chest pain, as this may cause an unsafe drop in blood pressure. do not drink alcohol in excess with cialis. side effects may include headache, upset stomach, delayed backache or muscle ache. to avoid long-term injury, seek immediate medical help for an erection lasting more than 4 hours. if you have any sudden decrease or loss in hearing or vision, or if you have any allergic reactions such as rash, hives, swelling of the lips, tongue or throat, or difficulty breathing or swallowing, stop taking cialis and get medical help right away. ask your doctor about cialis for daily use and a 30-tablet free trial. make it happen with fidelity active trader pro. it's one more innovative reason
welcome back to the "halftime report." breaking moments for news that has been positive for bank of america shares. the new york state supreme court just moments ago released an opinion affirming an $8.5 billion settlement that bank of america reached in 2011 with a group of private investors over mortga mortgage-backed securities related to countrywide that they purchased leading up to and during the financial crisis. a lot of investors, after that settlement was reached, came out of the woodwork, said $8.5
billion was not close to enough to cover the losses that they suffered. the question here was bank of neck mellon which represented a handful of those investors in this settlement, this litigation has been going on for months if not years at this point and it was left in the judge's hand in november. but mike mayo had as recently as september said this could cost bank of america up to $22 billion more if we weren't seeing the market off by triple digits you would see an even bigger pop in bank of america shares. that's huge news. that settlement stands. >> i know from where you're sitting you can't see what the shares are doing, but after an initial burst, they're negative. i'm just curious why you think -- because these guys next to me were shaking their heads watching the stock react because this was supposed to be taken, right, as positive news. >> it is supposed to be taken as positive news. there were a lot of investors that were worried throughout this year when they saw bank of america not putting as much money into its legal reserves as they thought that the bank maybe
should if they expected the judge to strike this down. it should be seen as extremely positive news. maybe there was some talk in the market leading up this week that priced this into a certain extent. i know there are a lot of executives in charlotte and at one brian park who is cheering this today. >> thanks so much. let's move on to our debate. yum brands reports earnings on monday after the closing bell it was this past december the company was finally able to record the first month of positive. can that momentum continue in 2014? we'll debate it now. do doc is the bull, murph is the bear. >> they are one for one because i do believe they will report another, two for two, as far as positive results. i think what you're looking at here is the price increase if it goes through in china is going to be huge. i think the fastest grower in india is another plus. and fact fact that india has 65% of the population is under 35
years old given that they love the brand and this is the fastest growing brand there i would say the turn around that india's experiencing, that's going to impact the bottom line and the fact that stock's down 11% into the earnings. i wouldn't want to be short it. >> you look at the set-up here. you better open that india can help them because they're way passed their peak growth in china. they're raising busts. but remember, not only are food costs going up in line with that but their costs they're going to have to pay to make sure they're clean when the next inspections come in because in china they're going to increase inspections on them. that's going to come up, also. you also are dealing with more of the bird flu in china. one just died, i think the second person just died over there. so in the past whenever there's been bird flu and yum brands mixed together it's been a negative for the stock. i think that's what you can continue to see. the stock has sold off hard into the earnings. >> you've gotten seconds. >> that's the other reason i like it. if you've got momentum that
drives it up and it's already all priced in, i think instead the bad news is priced in and some of those positives i talked about are what's going to turn it around. >> simon baker, who made the more compelling argument here? >> i think the stock tells you where it's going. murph makes a clearly a strong point why you want to earn it here. dreadful. support at 64. mention it with a bird flu and i have always said, multinationals of anything with emerging market exposure you want to stay away from. i'm with murph. >> tell white house you think won that debate. tweet us and use the #bull or #bear. we'll have the results at the end of the show. well, our next guest is at the top of her game. candace browning runs research at bank of america/merrill lynch which ranked number one of the street for the third consecutive year. joins us live from kansas. welcome to the halftime show. >> thank you. >> what do you make of this renewed volatility and all the concerns about what's taking place in emerging markets? >> well, if you look at it,
we've been concerned that there was going to be some volatility as the fed began to taper and that's exactly what's happened. there are obviously some very compelling attractive opportunities in emerging markets if you look at it. i mean, you think about something like brazil, msci is equal to the whole value of google or turkey is equal to the whole value of starbucks. you look at it that way and think, wow, there might be some real opportunities there. then you look at what's happening in countries and the current account deficits and are they going to be able to meet the earnings expectations and the fed's tapering and it's just a bunch of volatility. so we think that it's still too early to buy emerging markets. but we think there will be some big opportunities in 2014. >> i mean, it is impossible to really, you know, tell when the bleeding could stop in the emerging markets but we have had some notable people come on cnbc over the last week or so, even heard, you know, some comments
from davos that, yes, it's painful now but, you know, three, five years down the road we'll look back and say that this was a blip. >> well, and i agree with that if you take a three- to five-year time frame. what we're really looking for is some sort of capitulation. so if you look at these markets, they are about 6%, 7% below their 200-moving day average. a proper panic in em is usually around 10% to 20% below their 200-moving day average. we're looking for that type of capitulation before we signal now is the time to get? >> wow. >> we're looking closely because we think they're going to be some opportunities there, and big opportunities. >> so so much for this great rotation, right, from bonds to stocks? if anything, it's gone the other way in this early part of 2014. what are we to make of that? >> well, it's gone, you know, the other way for the very early part of 2014. but again, if you take that longer term view like we were
just talking about in em, what we think you're going to see is nomalization of interest rates and normalization of economic growth and what that means over a longer period of time is that the returns in bonds are not going to keep up with stocks and we think that you will see an appreciation in the stock market. soing our smp target for the full year is 2,000. >> candace, simon here. we heard them talking where technology will go and wearables. one of thur favorite themes is short humans. >> humans are not feeling good today after that catchy but scary headline. >> yeah, we are very long robots here at bank of america/merrill lynch. we think it's a huge exciting area. you're seeing robots doing things i never thought like peeling fruit and peeling shrimp and all these other kinds of things. the other way to play this that i think you talk about is wearable tech, look at obesity.
that's one of our favorite themes as well. you know, 50% of people are going to be obese by the year 2030. if we keep on eating the way we're eating today. now, i hope that doesn't happen but if it does, there are a lot of different ways to invest in those obesity trends, whether you mentioned wearable tech, sports apparel, farm is a. so that's a trend that we're very excited about. >> candace, thanks so much for coming on today. great to welcome you to the show, as i said. congratulations on the honor again. institutional investor, top global research firm three straight years. >> thank you. >> all right. we'll talk to you soon. coming up, the super bowl. the countdown is now two days. still not sure who is going to take home the lombardi trophy? maybe former pro bowl receiver and super bowl champ keyshawn johnson will help us figure it out.ouncer what if a small company became big business overnight? ♪ like, really big... then expanded?
♪ or their new product tanked? ♪ or not? what if they embrace new technology instead? ♪ imagine a company's future with the future of trading. company profile. a research tool on thinkorswim. from td ameritrade. a research tool on thinkorswim. in a we believe outshining the competition tomorrow requires challenging your business inside and out today. at cognizant, we help forward-looking companies run better and run different - to give your customers every reason to keep looking for you. so if you're ready to see opportunities and see them through, we say: let's get to work. because the future belongs to those who challenge the present. if you have a business idea, we have a personalized legal solution that's right for you.
with easy step-by-step guidance, we're here to help you turn your dream into a reality. start your business today with legalzoom. i took medicine but i still have symptoms. [ sneeze ] [ male announcer ] truth is not all flu products treat all your symptoms. what? [ male announcer ] alka-seltzer plus severe cold and flu speeds relief to these eight symptoms. [ breath of relief ] thanks. [ male announcer ] you're welcome. ready? go. [ male announcer ] you're welcome. humans -- even when we cross our "t's" and dot our "i's," we still run into problems. that's why liberty mutual insurance offers accident forgiveness with our auto policies. if you qualify, your rates won't go up due to your first accident. because making mistakes is only human, and so are we. we also offer new car replacement, so if you total your new car, we give you the money for a new one. call liberty mutual insurance at... and ask us all about our auto features, like guaranteed repairs,
where if you get into an accident and use one of our certified repair shops, your repairs are guaranteed for life. so call... to talk with an insurance expert about everything that comes standard with our base auto policy. and if you switch, you could save up to $423. liberty mutual insurance. responsibility. what's your policy? i'm in that room somewhere there. coming up at the top of the hour on "power lunch," it has been an ugly month, jittery january. is this the start of a 15 correction as some expected or more modest. if you believe we're going down farther from here, up about 5%
on the dow, how can you -- for the month -- how can you protect yourself? the sector winners and losers in the latest steep correction. companies like coke, mcdonald's, ford, gm, they all rely on overseas sales to one degree or the other. what the emerging market crisis means for these kinds of multinationals. and the black swan author is in the house and he will tell us about the next emerging threats fon investors. scott, back to you. >> tyler, thank you. look forward to see you in 12 minutes or so. next guest knows a thing or two about super bowl sunday. he won super bowl xxvii with the tampa bay buccaneers. keyshawn johnson is current ceo of first picks management joining us from new york city. key, welcome. >> thank you. >> who is going to win the big game and why? >> i think right now i'm leaning towards seattle, the team that i picked at the beginning of the year to go to the super bowl and win it. the other -- the opposition would have been the kansas city chiefs. they didn't make it. instead it's the denver broncos.
i believe the defense of the seattle seahawks will be too much for denver's offense to handle. defensive squads have won the super bowls of recent or late if you look at the new york giants and super bowl. >> you sure did. i figured maybe your opinion would be different based on the fact that one of your best attributes was your size and demarius thomas is a big guy. >> he is, a big talented receiver but i think when you got a guy like richard sherman that's a physical guy that can run that can play the ball pretty well when it's in the air, you know, hey, here's an opportunity to take advantage of that but you have to be careful because a guy like richard sherman can go the other way much like dion sanders did. >> i had joe theismann on yesterday who you may be surprised knows an awful lot
about the stock market, as much as he does football, for certain. you have a business called first picks management. do you follow the stock market? >> i really don't follow it much because most of my advancements are pretty safe. outside first picks management which is a holding company for a hospitality business and restaurants and hotels. that's really the only thing that i pay attention to. i'm not a heavy stock guy. i just never have been. i'm a real -- i'm heavy in reals state. i love real estate because of the -- obviously the state of california is big in real estate, especially in the los angeles area. so a lot of times for me i look both for residential properties as well as commercial properties within those areas. >> keyshawn, this is mike murphy. so i want to go back to the game for a second. i played football in college with one of the best slot receivers of all time, wayne quebec. and i'm thinking wes welker could maybe make a difference in this game and pull it out for denver. what do you think? >> wayne was the original wes
welker so i think, you you know, if you could get him free from the physical nature of what seattle is doing in their secondary and defense, they will have an opportunity. the problem that you have with a guy like wes welker is he'she's extremely fast, he's a smaller guy, and the abuse that he can take in this football game from those bigger safeties that really will try and hit you, you have to be careful. man-to-man coverage for him, he's going to have to get some picks and some rubs to get free from these guys because they like -- they tend to grab and hold on to you. it will be interesting to see if he can be a difference in this game for peyton manning. >> don't worry, there was nothing loaded in mike murphy's question. >> why? oh, because he went to hofstra? that's television stuff, man. new york tv. >> enjoy the game. we'll see how it unfolds. >> thank you. >> keyshawn johnson. sticking with the super bowl, we want to do a little trade school for our newest american citizen, yep, simon baker. it's not football you're looking
at. a photograph of sir ian mckelan and sir patrick stewart clearly excited for the big game. you have the spirit as well, i hope? >> i have the spirit. i'll be there, absolutely. once a year. that's about as much of that game as i can watch. >> the nasdaq not immune to today's beat-down. we will break down the hardest-hit names and the pockets of bright spots after this. announcer: where can an investor be a name and not a number? scottrade. ron: i'm never alone with scottrade. i can always call or stop by my local office. they're nearby and ready to help. so when i have questions, i can talk to someone who knows exactly how i trade. because i don't trade like everybody. i trade like me. that's why i'm with scottrade. announcer: ranked highest in investor satisfaction with self-directed services by j.d. power and associates.
let's go to sheila dharmarajan for an update on what's happening in the nasdaq. turbulent week. what are you seeing today? >> we are making our way back here. just take a look at the nasdaq intraday. we are well off the session lows. in fact, now we are down only about .3%. so really quite a turnaround from the selloff of this morning. doing the heavy lifting is google. that stock hitting a record high after earnings. investors really liking the fact that their ad volume is jumping quite a bit. looking for pricing trends, microsoft of course also doing a lot of heavy lifting, having the second most positive influence on the nasdaq today. let's talk about the losers because mattel is one of them. that stock down almost 10% after weak earnings. biotech is an interesting one today. it is underperforming the nasdaq, it has traditionally been an outperformer. a lot of weakness there. celgene a lot of people saying are to blame, coming in with profits that fell 19% during their earnings. scott? >> jon najarian buying an ad giant during unusual activity.
which one? >> mon ssanto. they were about six times the normal activity and we can determine that because there was an open interest that previously existed. this has exceeded that by nearly seven times. i would say somebody wants to put a bet down on monsanto. it's out in july. doesn't mean it will move today but it means they're bullish. >> we generally see these things move when you mention them. you own it? >> i do. >> holding period is what? >> because these are julys, i think i will probably be in it about 20 days. because for me, that's a long time. that's buy and hold and i don't like buy and hold. but because it's way out in july, somebody wanted enough time frame to be right. they didn't want to just be in for the short term. >> yeah, i like the monsanto play but i would also say you can look at dupont. dupont's had great numbers. sold off a little bit recently. >> all right.
we will do some final trades and find out who won the debate on the other side. n you start tomo? yes sir. alright. let's share the news tomorrow. today we failrly busy. tomorrow we're booked solid. we close on the house tomorrow. i want one of these opened up. because tomorow we go live... it's a day full of promise. and often, that day arrives by train. big day today? even bigger one tomorrow. when csx trains move forward, so does the rest of the economy. csx. how tomorrow moves.
sometimes they just drop in. always obvious. cme group can help you navigate risks and capture opportunities. we enable you to reach global markets and drive forward with broader possibilities. cme group: how the world advances. (voseeker of the sublime.ro. you can separate runway ridiculousness... from fashion that flies off the shelves. and you...rent from national. because only national lets you choose any car in the aisle... and go. and only national is ranked highest in car rental customer satisfaction by j.d. power. (natalie) ooooh, i like your style.
serious investors are choosing fidelity. call or click to open your fidelity account today. okay. welcome back. the results are in. you said murphy, the bear, won the debate on yum brands. you're like two in a row now. off the schneid. >> undefeated for 2014. >> final trades? let's look ahead to next week. getting a jobs report late next week. you think this volatility, doc, will continue right into the early part of next week? >> no. in fact, i think it peaked out again, hit right up to 1899, the vix cashed in today, it pulled off of their better than 1.50. i think it's exhausting itself at those levels. if we see more moves like turkey as far as addressing it, i think that's positive. >> it didn't work the first time, right? >> africa only moved half -- >> sure, but the point is the market is up a percent, then down a percent, then up a
percent. now down a percent. >> liquidity isn't there in the emerging markets. getting out there takes time. i think they will be out by this time next week. >> final trades? >> buy wendy's. >> simon? >> i was trying to say this, northern southern. >> i like tmo, thermal fisher. >> have a great weekend. "power lunch" starts now. "halftime" is over. "power lunch" and the second half of the trading day starts right now. >> one of those guys will say they were long peyton manning or long russell wilson. i'm not sure i would go quite this far. oh, what a comeback on a day when the dow is still down 108 points. but remember, we were down 230 points earlier. right now, down about 110, 111 at 15,737. we will take that one apart for you. regardless of today's drop and then the bungie jump back, we are asking a very important question, why? why, why, why